NOAA Predicts Near Normal or Above Normal Atlantic Hurricane Season

 Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna, Ike. Josephine,

Kyle, Laura, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paloma, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky, Wilfred

 NOOA’s Climate Prediction Center predicts that projected climate conditions point to a near normal or above normal hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin this year. The prediction was issued at a news conference called to urge residents in vulnerable areas to be fully prepared for the onset of hurricane season, which began June 1 and ends November 30.

                “Living in a coastal state means having a plan for each and every hurricane season. Review or complete emergency plans now - before a storm threatens,” said retired Navy Vice Adm. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Ph.D., undersecretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator. “Planning and preparation is the key to storm survival and recovery,” he added.

                The Climate Prediction Center outlook calls for considerable activity with a 65 percent probability of an above normal season and a 25 percent probability of a near normal season. This means there is a 90 percent chance of a near or above normal season.

                The climate patterns expected during this year’s hurricane season have in past seasons produced a wide range of activity and have been associated with both near-normal and above-normal seasons. For 2008, the outlook indicates a 60 to 70 percent chance of 12 to 16 named storms, including 6 to 9 hurricanes and 2 to 5 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).

                An average season has 11 named storms, including six hurricanes for which two reach major status.

                “The outlook is a general guide to the overall seasonal hurricane activity,” Lautenbacher said. “It does not predict whether, where or when any of these storms may hit land. That is the job of the National Hurricane Center after a storm forms.” 

                Bill Read, director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center, said, “Our forecasters are ready to track any tropical cyclone, from a depression to a hurricane, which forms in the Atlantic Basin. We urge coastal residents to have a hurricane plan in place before the season begins and NHC will continue to provide the best possible forecast to the public.”

                When a storm forms in the tropics – and even before that stage – NOAA forecasters at the Miami-based National Hurricane Center are in continuous monitoring mode – employing a dense network of satellites, land- and ocean-based sensors and aircraft reconnaissance missions operated by NOAA and its partners. This array of data supplies the information for complex computer modeling and human expertise that serves the basis for the hurricane center’s track and intensity forecasts that extend out five days in advance.

                The science behind the outlook is rooted in the analysis and prediction of current and future global climate patterns as compared to previous seasons with similar conditions. “The main factors influencing this year’s seasonal outlook are the continuing multi-decadal signal (the combination of ocean and atmospheric conditions that have spawned increased hurricane activity since 1995), and the anticipated lingering effects of La Niña,” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “One of the expected oceanic conditions is a continuation since 1995 of warmer-than-normal temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic.”

                “Americans in hurricane-prone states must get serious and be prepared.  Government – even with the federal, tribal, state and local governments working perfectly in sync – is not the entire answer.  Everyone is part of the emergency management process,” said FEMA Administrator R. David Paulison. “We must continue to develop a culture of preparedness in America in which every American takes personal responsibility for his or her own emergency preparedness.”

                NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season outlook will be updated on August 7, just prior to what is historically the peak period for hurricane activity.

                Tropical systems acquire a name – the first of which for 2008 will be Arthur – upon reaching tropical storm strength with sustained winds of at least 39 mph. Tropical storms become hurricanes when winds reach 74 mph, and become major hurricanes when winds reach 111 mph.

 

 

Foreclosures Put a New Twist on Hurricane Season and Intensify the Need to Prepare

Fallout from the ongoing mortgage crisis provides a new, potentially hazardous twist to the 2008 hurricane season; however, communities can take steps to protect themselves, says the Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS).

                Unfortunately, more than half a million properties in hurricane-prone states are in some stage of foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac. IBHS warns that the many thousands of foreclosed homes standing empty in coastal areas from Texas to Maine could exacerbate property damage in their neighborhoods if the wind starts to blow.

                “Foreclosed homes that are either poorly maintained or otherwise left vulnerable to natural forces could become flying debris that takes aim at neighboring buildings,” said IBHS President and CEO Julie Rochman. “Gulf and Atlantic Coast communities should consider this fact when making or reviewing hurricane preparation and disaster recovery plans.”

                IBHS notes that a house is most vulnerable to high winds when the building “envelope” is not sealed by approved forms of opening protection, such as storm shutters or reinforced garage doors. Building materials and other debris from partially completed new homes sitting unsecured along the coasts also could become shrapnel or missiles impacting nearby buildings.

IBHS recommends that homeowner associations or community groups try to determine who is responsible for unoccupied properties in their neighborhoods, and encourage those responsible parties to take meaningful loss prevention steps prior to the start of hurricane season.

                Many Americans are facing difficult times financially, but IBHS stresses there are effective, affordable options to minimize losses from hurricanes and wind-driven rain.  “The payoff for a stronger, well-protected home goes beyond the structure itself,” Rochman adds. “Being prepared contributes to a family’s personal financial stability and improves the home’s resale value – two very valuable aspects of home ownership today.”

 

 

Top 5 Ways To Protect Homes From Hurricanes

The Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS) has outlined five ways to better protect homes from damaging wind and rain this hurricane season.

 

1-Shutter all openings - The most important thing you can do to improve the chance your home will survive a hurricane is to protect all windows and doors. The range of products on the market today means it’s easier to find protection that fits your budget. Whatever you choose, make sure the product has the proper approvals for wind pressure and large-missile impact. If it’s not a permanent product, install permanent fasteners ahead of time so installation is easier when storms threaten. Gable end vents can be shuttered as if they were a window. Garage door companies have bracing systems available for about $400 that should work for most door styles.

2-Secure loose roof shingles - Keeping shingles attached is critical. If the edge shingles are not well fastened or extend beyond the drip edge more than a 1/4", high wind can lift them off and create a peeling process or domino effect. If they come up without much effort (older shingles become brittle and may crack when bent too much), secure them with three one-inch dabs of roofing cement under each tab.

3-Seal openings, cracks and holes - Water can invade homes in a number of ways, especially when it’s being blown horizontally. The problem is compounded if there’s a loss of power and air conditioners or dehumidifiers are unable to dry things out. Fill holes where wires, cables and pipes enter and exit the house and seal around electrical boxes and circuit breaker panels. Seal cracks around wall outlets, dryer vents, bathroom and kitchen vents, and wall lights.

4-Strengthen soffits - Keeping soffits in place can help keep water out of your house. Some have wood supports but the soffit material is not adequately fastened to the wood or there is no wood backing and the vinyl or aluminum channels are stapled or nailed to the wall. If there are wood supports, secure soffit material with sharp-pointed stainless steel screws. If the channels are just nailed to the wall, you can use polyurethane caulk to seal the channel to the wall and tie the parts together.

5-Survey surroundings and limit potential flying debris - Limiting possible sources of wind-borne debris before a storm will help protect your home and those around you. Replace gravel/rock landscaping materials with shredded bark. Limit yard objects. Keep trees and shrubbery trimmed. Cut weak branches.

For more information, request a free copy of the IBHS publication “S Marks the Spot” by calling toll free 1 (866) 657-4247 or view it on the IBHS web site www.DisasterSafety.org.